My swing state view as of Oct 22

This morning I read the TIPP national tracking poll that showed over the weekend the race was tightening. It had this to say:

Trump's weekend momentum has fizzled out, and Harris and Trump are locked in a tight contest. Despite Trump's earlier momentum, the TIPP tracking poll shows former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris tied at 48%.

My first thought was okay it's a tracking poll, there is a daily fluctuation that shouldn't be taken as gospel. So I decided to look further, and I discovered two things.  Firstly, despite the rounding, overall the details show Trump with a fractional lead at 48% and Harris somewhere around 47.7%. That is still a Trump lead, however small.  The second thing I discovered was that within their tracking poll, Trump did indeed drop from 49% to 48% on the rolling score while Harris gained from 47% to just under the 48% mark. That could be anything from a weekend Democrat response bias to real movement.  It's hard to tell.  

Keep in mind this is a national poll. If Trump is even in a national poll, he is in a strong position to win the national total vote count, which is of course, merely bragging rights. Perhaps it's a little more consequential this time around but that's a discussion for another time. What's interesting is that it matches a couple of my updated swing state results.  What really matters is the swing state polls.

Taking a look at the RealClearPolitics battleground state polling average (which are not the gold standard and why I try to average the polls a bit differently than RCP does) we see the following:

• Pennsylvania - Trump +0.8%
• North Carolina -  Trump +0.5%
• Georgia - Trump +2.5%
• Arizona - Trump +1.8%
• Wisconsin - Trump +0.4%
• Michigan - Trump +1.2%
• Nevada - Trump +0.7%

Here's what I am seeing as of this morning:

How does that compare to my previous snapshot? 

In my view, Trump has improved modestly in the sunbelt states of Arizona and Georgia (Nevada is statistically unchanged). In North Carolina and Pennsylvania there were no new polls so obviously, unchanged. In Wisconsin, Trump's lead has shrunk, perhaps mirroring the national TIPP findings.

As the polls begin to move in Trump's direction, the difference between my results and the RCP average has tightened. In Arizona, Wisconsin and North Carolina, our differences are negligible. In Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania I am seeing a much better Trump result than RCP and conversely, I am seeing a worse result for Trump in Nevada than RCP.

If my view is correct, Trump has a lead pretty much outside the margin of error cheating in Georgia and Pennsylvania. Those two states would bring his Electoral College total to 254 of the 270 needed to win. If Trump wins Michigan (his next highest lead) it would put him at 269. Arizona would put him over the top, being Trump's next highest lead over Michigan.  At just under 2% in the latter two states, Trump is likely to win, but they are not at a comfort level just yet.  With 13 days to go, I'm expecting one of two things; either a nailbiter finish with a Harris two-days-later, come from behind suspicious victory, or a Trump blowout win.

My swing state view as of Oct 21

Here's what I see when I look at the polls and include only polls from the last 10 days, with only Likely Voters, only polls of 700 or more respondents, and with a margin of error less than or equal to 3.5%. Just like RCP, I'm seeing a swing state sweep for Trump.

This would equate to a significant electoral college sweep for Trump. There's good news and worrisome news in this.  Firstly, Georgia and Pennsylvania look like they are approaching outside of margin of error leads for Trump. The worrisome part, the other states are all tin to razor-thin leads. The momentum is in Trump's favor BUT...

The Kamala Harris honeymoon was almost certainly a product of media and push-pollster hype. The polls 100% had to move towards Trump because the Harris leads were pure vaporware wishful-thinking, pie-in-the-sky unicorns and fairy dust. Which means that the polls have in reality, probably moved very little towards Trump.  I don't doubt he's leading, but the margins may indeed be slim in these key battleground states. And if that's true, vote tabulation malfeasance is a risk.

McKinsey implicated in drone scandal

McKinsey & Company is an American multinational strategy and management consulting firm that offers professional services to corporations, governments, and other organizations. Um, what the heck have they been doing??? And what has the Department of Defense been doing? Why is the United States been doing buying drones from China? What a mess.

I'm dubious, CBS

60 Minutes obfuscates to hide their own manipulation of their Kamala Harris interview.  It sure took them a long time to craft a response. And it sure was carefully worded. So it sure doesn't make them look any less deceptive.

Sunday verse

 

Meanwhile in Canada, Trudeau is desperate

Former Canadian socialist party (NDP) leader Tom Mulcair calls out Trudeau for his desperate and unfounded attack on conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.  He said it's unworthy of consideration.  Kudos to him for being honest, unlike the current NDP socialist leader.  Trudeau is trying to distract everyone from his own miserable failings, and it is truly disgusting.