I told you they're still cheating

Rasmussen helps make my point:

Was Sunny Hostin radicalized in college?

Based on this clip, perhaps yes. The thing is, she hasn't gotten over it.

This Alan Lichtman guy

This Alan Lichtman guy has cooked himself and is ruining the shreds of his own credibility and that of his model. This election cycle he was way off, and instead of addressing why, he continues to dig himself into a deeper hole.

I can tell you why his model can be right and still provide the wrong answer. It's actually pretty amazing. His model has been highly accurate previously.  It isn't perfect, but it was a pretty good model.  Here's the problem with it; it's open to a high degree of subjectivity from the person inputting stuff into the model. I read the keys to the model and got a different score than Lichtman did and a different score than Tim Pool did when he tried it.

The model did not fail, Alan Lichtman fed partisan garbage into it.  I don't even mean that in a pejorative way. I mean garbage in -> garbage out.  The model wasn't wrong, Alan Lichtman was wrong. If he had been far more objective in his assessment of his own keys, he would have gotten it right.  He live-streamed the election and you can see his slow burn meltdown, trying to convince himself that his model was correct. 

Now, was his judgement clouded by partisanship or was his partisanship that night a result of his projection and trying to have his model come up a winner again?  I don't know for sure but I suspect the former; his original inputs were weirdly partisan skewed. It was a rose-colored glasses view of the Harris campaign, across the board. Either he's ill-informed at that point, or purely partisan. 

I believe he's highly partisan.  He's taking any criticism (and there have been a lot, from many different corners) as a personal attack. That's still not enough evidence that it's the partisan views that sank his model vs. just not being well informed about the state of the nation and political winds. But this ought to clinch the deal on the partisanship; here he is throwing the credibility of his model out the window in a quest to defame president-elect Trump. It's partisanship over reason at the highest setting:

So we're calling this done now?

Honestly, I think Trump will let this go, but as a proactive measure against future government lawfare, this should be pursued as a malicious prosecution. 

The popular vote total situation

In 2020, Let's Go Brandon purportedly got 81,282,916 votes to Trump's 74,223,369 votes. That's a vote total of 155,506,285 votes.

In 2024, we currently see the following:

There's only a difference of a little over a million votes from 2020.  Either Let's Go Brandon truly did earn a record vote volume and it was erased by Trump in 2024, or, there were 26 million more votes in 2020 than there were in 2016 (~128 million for Trump and Clinton combined):

And if the latter is true, Let's Go Brandon got 11.7 million more votes than did Obama (69.4 million) at his most popular in 2008 when there were 129.4 million votes for the two major candidates. 

Notice in 2016 and 2008 the totals were awfully close? Yet the vote total sudden leapt up 26 million votes. That's absurd unless there was cheating or duplicate votes being counted. 

And if that absurdity holds true for 2024, Trump, whose vote totals went from 62.9 million in 2016, to 74.2 million in 2020 to 77 million in 2024, actually blew out Kamala Harris by a lot more than 3 million votes and cheating still occurred in crazy numbers. If we extrapolate out the vote total growth from 2008 to 2016, an extra 1.4 million, then 2024 should expect a total of 130.8 million. If Trumps' total was 77 million that would leave just 53 million votes for Harris. 

The thing is that so many people went and voted for Trump that they swamped the cheat. It would explain the push polls saying Harris was going to win Iowa for example.  It would explain why the Harris campaign thought they were going to 'win'.  It would explain a lot actually.

But that's just conspiracy theory stuff. Right?

Maybe it's just that the extra 26 million votes appeared due to illegal immigrants.  That would explain why the 2024 vote totals were similar to the 2020 vote totals. 26 million illegal immigrants is nothing to sneeze at. Of course that's also conspiracy theory stuff, right?

Fine.  It's all just conspiracy theory and Trump did just retake the White House. Fine.  I'm skeptical about the 2020 and 2024 vote totals, but I'll still take it.  Nevertheless, to me it just speaks to creating better controls for open and fair voting.  Federal rules. At a Constitutional level. Because something about the 2020 election, and even the Harris total in 2024, still seems off.

Sunday verse